本研究基于现场测试数据，发现并定量解析了有色金属冶炼企业上、下游大气污染控制设施之间存在的“汞去除补偿效应”。基于该效应，本研究构建了基于控制技术并考虑烟气性质影响的汞物质流向概率模型，并得到了2010年和2017年（成效评估基准年）我国有色金属冶炼行业大气汞排放清单。结果显示，这段时期我国有色金属冶炼行业的大气汞减排量为55.6t，相较于不考虑去除补偿效应的情形高出13.5%，概率模型的应用避免了确定性模型因使用算术平均值或几何平均值导致的汞排放量高估或低估，而对汞去除补偿效应的考虑避免了对串联污染控制设施总体脱汞效率的低估，显著降低了清单的不确定性，可为我国控汞成效的精准评估提供重要方法学支撑。

  祝贺淑贞！

  In this study, a “Mercury (Hg) removal compensation effect” between upstream and downstream air pollution control devices (APCDs) in NFMS was uncovered based on the investigation of field test data. The relationships between the Hg concentration in flue gas and the Hg removal efficiencies of typical APCDs were established, and an advanced probabilistic mass flow model regarding this effect was developed to establish the Hg emission inventory for China in 2010 and 2017. Results show that the Hg emission abatement in the NFMS sector from 2010 to 2017 was evaluated to be 55.6 t, which was 13.5% higher than the estimate without considering the Hg removal compensation effect. The probabilistic essence of the advanced model prevents the underestimation of the deterministic model caused by using the geometric means of the Hg contents of metal concentrates, and the consideration of the removal compensation effect leads to more accurate estimation of the overall Hg removal efficiency of cascaded APCDs. The overall uncertainty of the improved model was reduced. This study provides a new methodology for more accurate evaluation of the effectiveness of the national implementation plan for the Minamata Convention on Mercury.

  Congratulations to Shuzhen !