本研究建立能源-经济模型、化学传输模式和人群健康风险评估模型相结合的综合评估体系，量化典型碳减排和污染控制政策对我国污染排放、空气质量和人群健康的效益。在最严格排放情景下，2030年我国PM_2.5和O₃长期暴露导致的过早死亡总人数将下降28.9万人，约占基准排放情景死亡人数的23%，其中约3/4的健康效益来源于末端污染控制水平的提升。同时推动能源与污染控制政策的实施使2030年我国PM_2.5浓度小于国家二级标准（35 μg/m³）的累计人口百分比提高到2015年的2倍左右；O₃暴露浓度小于国家二级标准（160 μg/m³）的累计人口百分比接近100%，但O₃暴露浓度低于WHO准则值（100 μg/m³）的累计人口占比仍无明显提高。

       祝贺金曌！

  An integrated framework combining an energy-economic model, an air quality model and a concentration-response model was developed to assess the co-benefits of carbon and pollution control policies on emission changes, air quality and human health. Compared to the 2030 baseline scenario, the nationwide PM_2.5- and O₃-related mortality was expected to decline 23% or 289 thousand in the most stringent scenario, and three quarters of the avoided deaths were attributed to the end-of-pipe control measures. With faithful implementation of carbon and pollution control policies, the population fractions with PM_2.5 exposure under the national air quality standard (35 μg/m³) would be doubled from 2015 to 2030. For O₃ exposure, almost all the people would live in areas with the NAAQS achieved across the country (160 μg/m³), while still very few people would live in areas with the WHO guideline achieved (100 μg/m³).

  Congratulations to Jinzhao!

The cumulative distributions of annual mean PM_2.5 (a) and O₃ (b) exposures under different scenarios.