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碳排放及污染控制政策对我国未来大气环境和健康的协同效应研究论文被EI接收(Our work on co-benefits of carbon and pollution control policies on air quality and health in China in the future was accepted by Environment International)

Published:2021-03-09  Views:598

       本研究建立能源-经济模型、化学传输模式和人群健康风险评估模型相结合的综合评估体系,量化典型碳减排和污染控制政策对我国污染排放、空气质量和人群健康的效益。在最严格排放情景下,2030年我国PM2.5和O3长期暴露导致的过早死亡总人数将下降28.9万人,约占基准排放情景死亡人数的23%,其中约3/4的健康效益来源于末端污染控制水平的提升。同时推动能源与污染控制政策的实施使2030年我国PM2.5浓度小于国家二级标准(35 μg/m3的累计人口百分提高到2015年的2倍左右O3暴露浓度小于国家二级标准(160 μg/m3的累计人口百分比接近100%,但O3暴露浓度低于WHO准则值(100 μg/m3的累计人口占比仍无明显提高。



  An integrated framework combining an energy-economic model, an air quality model and a concentration-response model was developed to assess the co-benefits of carbon and pollution control policies on emission changes, air quality and human health. Compared to the 2030 baseline scenario, the nationwide PM2.5- and O3-related mortality was expected to decline 23% or 289 thousand in the most stringent scenario, and three quarters of the avoided deaths were attributed to the end-of-pipe control measures. With faithful implementation of carbon and pollution control policies, the population fractions with PM2.5 exposure under the national air quality standard (35 μg/m3) would be doubled from 2015 to 2030. For O3 exposure, almost all the people would live in areas with the NAAQS achieved across the country (160 μg/m3), while still very few people would live in areas with the WHO guideline achieved (100 μg/m3).

  Congratulations to Jinzhao!

The cumulative distributions of annual mean PM2.5 (a) and O3 (b) exposures under different scenarios.

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