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Sensitivity Analysis of the Formation of Fine Particle and Ozone in Autumn, Nanjing City

With the aims at analyzing the contribution of key emission sources in the south of Jiangsu  Province to PM2.5 concentration and the sensitivity of ozone formation in autumn in Nanjing City, brute-force method (BFM) is applied to set different emission scenarios for typical sources and pollutants. Chemical transport model of Models-3/ Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) is used to simulate the ground concentrations of PM and ozone in different emission scenarios. In October 2012, the average contributions of power plants, iron & steel and cement plants to PM2.5 in Nanjing are estimated to be 6.0%, 25.5% and 15.9% respectively. Furthermore, the contributions of the three sectors at air quality monitoring sites in Nanjing are calculated as 7.2%, 17.7% and 16.2%. Emissions from the iron & steel plants have a greater influence on the PM2.5 concentrations in the surrounding downwind region. The results from simulating the variation of ground ozone concentrations under different scenarios show that ozone concentrations in the urban areas of Nanjing and the downwind areas reduce with the decrease of VOC emission in the modeling domain, but increase with the decrease of NOx emission. Therefore, the formation of ozone in autumn in Nanjing is in the VOC-limited region


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